Major League Baseball and the MLBPA began collective bargaining Tuesday, 195 days before the current agreement expires December 1. The league's opening proposal: eliminate all high school–aged players from the domestic amateur draft, requiring draftees to be at least 20 years old. The union rejected the proposal in the room. A person familiar with the exchange said the MLBPA called it "outrageous."

The early start carries weight. The previous CBA negotiation began 94 days before expiration and produced a 99-day lockout that delayed Opening Day 2022. Starting now suggests both sides are pricing in a work stoppage. League officials privately told club presidents in a January video call to model "reduced gate revenue scenarios" for April and May 2026, according to two executives on the call. One named a figure: 15–20 percent downside if games are lost.

The high school draft ban is not a throwaway. It mirrors international player acquisition rules, where clubs sign amateurs at 16 but cannot promote them to affiliated ball until 18. The league's argument: forcing players into college or independent ball raises the average prospect quality and reduces bonus inefficiency. The union's read: it limits player leverage by shrinking the draft pool and funneling talent through NCAA programs that pay nothing. The College World Series television contract pays $500 million over eight years to the NCAA, not the players. MLB's proposal would lock that pipeline in place.

There is also the Cooper Pratt precedent. The Reds handed the 21-year-old infielder—zero MLB plate appearances—a $12 million guarantee in January, the largest pre-debut extension in a decade. That deal assumes stable draft economics and predictable player pipelines. If MLB restricts the draft to college players and older international signees, the calculus on pre-arbitration extensions shifts. Teams would be betting on older, more expensive prospects with shorter developmental runways. The Pratt contract becomes either smarter or dumber depending on what the next CBA does to amateur acquisition.

The union has not tabled a counter-proposal yet. That will come in the next session, tentatively scheduled for late February, according to one participant. The players' priorities are known: raise the luxury tax threshold, shorten team control windows, expand arbitration eligibility. The league wants an international draft—still unresolved from the last negotiation—and to codify restrictions on tanking, likely through draft lottery penalties or revenue-sharing haircuts.

Watch the college baseball calendar. If MLB seriously pursues a high school ban, expect the NCAA to angle for a formal development agreement, similar to the Canadian Hockey League's relationship with the NHL. The NCAA already floated a "baseball revenue distribution model" to Power Five athletic directors in November, per documents reviewed by two conference officials. The timing is not coincidence. If the draft ban happens, college programs become de facto minor leagues, and someone will want paid for it.

The next bargaining session is February 28. Spring Training facilities open February 12.